The Future of Driving

 

What will the near-future of driving bring, will our cars fly or be driven by robots? Even if this sounds like the joke to start an article with, the answer is actually “Yes” to both. Funnily enough, these may not even be the biggest changes you will encounter in traffic soon. So D’Vox answers the question of what we will be driving in the future, and whether we will actually be “driving”…

Flying cars and robots

Let’s get back to these flying cars first. So, they’re finally becoming real? Yes, they already are. D’Vox visited Pal-V, a Dutch company that produces the world’s first fully-licensed flying car. And it’s fantastic! Unfortunately, we won’t all be zooming through the skies soon, because flying requires a pilot’s license, and that’s not a simple exam to pass. Still, this doesn’t mean that flying cars will only become mere toys for the rich and licensed. They can also be quite valuable for emergency services. For them, a driving gyrocopter can reach places that other vehicles can’t. As such the Pal-V can literally save lives. This is why the UK’s medical emergency service, Sky Angels, ordered its first Pal-V in February 2023. Currently, all the hoops for EASA/FAA licensing have been jumped, but of course the process of licensing something this revolutionary takes many years. Still, at the end of 2024, Pal-V should start delivery of their flying cars.

So, flying cars are real, but what about these robot drivers? Well, even if there won’t be humanlike figures behind the wheel, a robot is a machine programmed to replicate human functions. And thát is exactly what autonomous cars do. In the coming years, the autonomy of cars will only increase. As of 2025, the UK will allow level 5 autonomous cars on its roads. We’re already quite used to level 1 and 2 autonomy, with self-parking, predictive cruise control and lane assist to keep you between the white lines. Level 4 means that the car can do everything, but the “driver” can still interfere. Level 5 means that the car can drive autonomously ánd it lacks steering wheel and pedals. And that’s coming to the UK in 2025 already. Many experts predict that the manufacturers themselves need more time to make “robot cars” an everyday reality. Still, they already exist and they will become more and more common.

Drunk drivers and hackers

Many people are terrified of self-driving cars, but why? Sure, every few months you read something about a sleeping Tesla driver whose car crashed into something. Yet, in the US alone, drunk drivers kill someone every 40 minutes, but nobody seems too worried about thát. So personally, I’ll take a sober robot over a drunk driver anytime.

But what about hackers? What if someone takes your vehicle hostage? That’s the stuff of horror movies. Obviously this is one of the manufacturers’ biggest fears. Therefore modern cars are set up to keep everybody locked out of their electronics, hardware, software, anywhere. This may sound like a great plan, and it mostly is. Still, this comes with some negative side effects. Just think of companies that make car conversions for people with a handicap. Driving with a disability often requires modifications to the throttle, brakes, power steering and gearboxes, which nowadays are mostly electronically controlled. So car adapters need access to the car’s brain, but manufacturers want to keep everybody out. The European Mobility Group, which represents Europe’s main conversion companies, is already lobbying on the highest European political levels. Because this policy is effectively locking groups of handicapped people out of driving/riding in almost all electric vehicles. Obviously, this clashes with quite a few principles of equality. So even if this is unintentional, manufacturers will have to find compromises or governments will interfere.

The case for shared vehicles

As cool as flying and self-driving cars may sound, the biggest changes to our future mobility may be car sharing and mini mobility. Today 55 % of the world’s population lives in urban areas, and this percentage is expected to jump to 68% by 2050. Cities normally have decent public transportation, but little room for cars and terrible parking, which makes car sharing interesting. Because why own a car full-time, if you only need it a few hours per week? Carsharing has grown exponentially in recent years, especially in Europe, where, on average, the urban electric infrastructure is better than in the US. 

So while we’re at it, why only share cars? Shared electric bicycles, mopeds, cargo bikes and scooters are quite common in European cities. And even if you do own or share a car, How often do you need it to be full size? Recent microcars are starting to look pretty smart too. Most drivers don’t need more than one or two seats. On top of that, smaller vehicles are more economical, more manoeuverable and a lot easier to park.

Electric Avenue

Out of all the changes, we’ve barely mentioned electrification. So, is that still happening? Yes, it’s speeding up. Currently the US is lagging behind, but catching up. In 2022 EVs (electric vehicles) made up 10% of new car sales worldwide, but only 6% in the US, and that was already up from 4% in 2021. Americans love their gas, but change is coming. Americans also love their pickups, and especially those have gone electric lately. It may seem strange that the rather traditional pickup market is at the forefront of America’s electric transition, but it actually makes sense. Batteries add weight to EVs, and especially for lighter cars the disadvantage of adding a full-size battery pack is quite big. For pickups this difference is less noticeable, they’re already heavy, so the advantages outweigh the extra weight. And the US also now has its first electric avenue, a stretch of road where cars car charge wirelessly. 

Even though electric cars have been sold since 1890, they’re rather underdeveloped compared to fuel powered cars. Whereas cars have been developing and improving for well over a century, EVs have only really been on a serious development curve in the last 15 years. A good example is Formula E, the electric racing series. The racetrack is still one of the best labs for innovation. Therefore, major brands, like Mercedes, BMW, Nissan, Porsche, Mahindra, Audi, Jaguar, Nio, Maserati, etc have all been in the series. And the development has been spectacular. When the championship started in 2014, the Generation 1 cars had a maximum of 308 hp, weighed 898 kilo (1,980 pounds) and the battery pack would last half a race, so the drivers would switch cars halfway through the 45 minute race. Fast forward 8 years to Generation 3 and the cars have a maximum of 805 hp, weigh 840 kilo (1,852 pounds) and they race the full distance without any stops. And that is why these manufacturers race. Such knowledge gained on track finds its way into everyday traffic within a few years.

The future of Driving

Even if Americans were a little late to the party, they will play a big role in the electric transition. Of course, EVs aren’t the answer to all situations, but they’re great for city life, while other alternatives to fossil fuels also need to mature. Synthetic fuel, hydrogen cars, the hyperloop, etc. all need to be developed to help keep our air cleaner. But the most visible changes for the near-future? Expect less and smaller cars in our cities, and yes, they will be electric.